We have arrested the development of our young

I hope you’re not among those silly people who concluded last week’s economic reform roundtable was just a talkfest that will lead to nothing concrete. Breaking news: we have to get together and talk about things before we agree on what our biggest problems are and what we will do about them.

Lots of bits and pieces came out of the roundtable, but by far the most important thing was universal agreement that something had to be done about “intergenerational inequity” – an economist’s way of saying that our young people have been getting a raw deal.

This came after Danielle Wood, the boss of the Productivity Commission, drew on its research to warn we were in danger of breaking Australia’s generational bargain – that our children will live better lives than their parents, as their parents did of their own parents.

Economists, naturally, see this largely in terms of reforming our system of taxes and benefits. The independent economist Saul Eslake summarises this by saying that our tax system “imposes a disproportionately high burden on younger working Australians, and a correspondingly lower burden on older, asset-rich Australians”.

Much of this disproportionate burden is accounted for by a problem we all know about – young people’s inability to afford a home of their own unless they have considerable help from their parents.

But a report to be released on Wednesday by Deloitte Access Economics reveals there’s much more to it than that. (The report has been prepared by Deloitte’s own young people.)

It says there has been an unprecedented shift in how young people under 35 work, vote and live. They’re navigating a version of adulthood that feels less like a rite of passage and more like a locked door.

The Hungarian sociologist Karl Mannheim argued that the economic and social conditions of our youth leave a lasting imprint on collective values, expectations and behaviour.

“Through this lens,” the report says, “Millennials and Gen Z are not merely younger versions of ourselves. They are products of their own formative experiences. The greatest mistake is to assume today’s young people are simply behind because they are young – and that, with time, they will catch up.”

Today’s young Australians are more educated than any generation before them, the report says, yet they face more insecure work and delayed financial independence. They are the first generation to live entirely online, and yet they report rising loneliness.

“They show up for issues and are determined to find balance, but remain locked out of the systems their parents helped to build.

“When the rules were written before they arrived, and the road ahead offers little promise of change, it is no wonder young people feel sidelined. In fact, 42 per cent of young Australians (18 to 24) feel they are missing out on their youth, and 41 per cent worry they won’t be able to live a happy and healthy life as they grow older,” we’re told.

Deloitte has used the census results for 1991 and 2021 to see how people aged 25 to 39 have changed between the Baby Boomers and the Millennials.

For a start, Millennials are better educated. The proportion of young people with post-school qualifications has gone from just under half to almost 80 per cent. The proportion of women with bachelor degrees has gone from one in eight to one in two.

Next, today’s young people are less likely to be married. The proportion which has not yet married has doubled from 26 per cent to 53 per cent. The median age at which the young marry has risen from 27 to 34. And whereas the proportion of 25- to 39-year-olds living as a couple used to be just over half – now it’s one-fifth.

Thanks to better economic management, the rate of unemployment among older young people has more than halved, falling from 8.4 per cent to 3.5 per cent.

The proportion of people with bachelor degrees whose earnings are in the top 15 per cent has risen from 38 per cent to 65 per cent. This may be because more of the female graduates have jobs and are working full-time. We know that the rate of participation in the labour market for all women has gone from almost two-thirds to more than three-quarters.

Now we get to home ownership. We know Millennials are likely to be better educated, more likely to be working and more likely to be in well-paid jobs but, even so, are less likely to be home owners. Whereas 66 per cent of Boomers aged 25 to 39 were home owners, for Millennials, it’s down to 55 per cent.

And whereas by that age, 19 per cent of Boomers owned their home outright, it had fallen to just 6 per cent for Millennials.

Elsewhere, we’re told that the younger generations are having children later, and more than half say they’re unlikely to have children.

The report argues that today’s young Australians are fundamentally different from previous generations, noting that they’ve grown up amid intensifying globalisation, a climate emergency, the rise of social media and now generative AI. Those young enough to have been at school during the COVID lockdowns had their educations significantly disrupted.

The report tells us how much a rapidly evolving labour market and financial instability are narrowing young people’s opportunities for economic prosperity. The way they see it is that the system has persistently moved the goalposts: you stay longer in education, you take longer to earn good money and longer to afford to buy a home. You marry later and have kids later (and maybe don’t have time to have as many as you’d have liked).

Little wonder the report tells us young Australians feel sidelined and unheard by political decision-makers, with only one in three trusting the federal government to do the right thing.

The way I’d put it is that, by our neglect, we’ve allowed our young people to suffer a bad case of arrested development. But thanks to the roundtable, I think we may be ready to do something to give the young a fairer deal.

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Don't let rich old men tell you the planned super tax is terribly bad

Would you want Australia to become more like America? How on Earth did so many Yanks vote to reinstall a crazy, destructive leader such as Mad King Donald? If we don’t want to become more like them, it’s worth thinking about how it happened, so we know what not to do.

Americans brought Trump back for two main reasons. First, extreme partisanship. Many registered Republicans voted for him because, no matter how bad he was, he couldn’t possibly be as bad as a Democrat president would be. But second, I suspect many Americans voted for him because they’d become so disenchanted with the way the country was run, felt so mistreated and estranged from the rest of America, that they wanted to give the system a big kick up the backside.

It wouldn’t do any good; Trump was no more to be trusted than any other politician, but it would make the outcasts feel a bit better.

I worry that if we go on the way we have been, we could end up with a section of our own community that was so peed off it wanted to kick against the pricks (excuse my language; not all politicians deserve that description). And it’s a mighty big section to have on the outer – the young. Everywhere they look, the young feel discriminated against.

Most of the older generation bought homes when they were affordable, but now they’re unaffordable. At work, they get paid much less than most older workers. And while their parents paid nothing for their tertiary education, they’re hit with huge HECS debts.

The young are right to feel ill-treated. Our system of tax and welfare benefits is biased in favour of the elderly and against the young.

Many people on the age pension benefit only to the extent that their paid-off home is ignored in means testing. Many self-proclaimed “self-funded retirees”, however, are doing very well for themselves.

It’s possible for a young family on, say, $150,000 a year, to be paying a lot of income tax, while a well-off retired couple on the same income pays very little.

The Albanese government is already facing annual budget deficits for at least the next decade, adding to the annual interest bill on our growing public debt. If we’re going to be spending more on defence and many other things, it will have to raise more in taxes.

How? Well, the nation’s chief executives in the Business Council of Australia helpfully suggest an increase in the GST. But it would be fairer if the government started by reducing the tax concessions and loopholes used mainly by the well-off.

And that brings us to the massive tax concessions attached to superannuation, which cost the government almost $50 billion a year in lost revenue. The concessions are worth far more per dollar saved to high income-earners than lower earners.

But they also favour the old rather than the young. The old earn more than the young, find it easier to save, and get the benefit from super sooner than the young. That’s why, in the government’s efforts to collect more tax, fixing the super concessions is a good way to reduce the tax system’s bias against the young.

Two-thirds of the value of super tax concessions go to the top 20 per cent of income earners. The concessions are intended to ensure people have enough income to live comfortably in retirement, but a fifth of withdrawals from super go as bequests to the superannuant’s children.

Treasury estimates that the share of withdrawals going as bequests will rise to a third by 2060. In other words, the concessions are so great that super has become a taxpayer-subsidised inheritance scheme. Meanwhile, other taxes must be higher to cover the cost of this inheritance scheme.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers intends to press on with a super tax measure he announced two years ago, but hasn’t yet been passed by the Senate. The plan is to increase the tax rate on super annual earnings for balances exceeding $3 million from 15 per cent to 30 per cent. The tax would apply only to the amount above $3 million.

The change will affect just the top 0.5 per cent of people with super – only about 80,000 people (including me). It would save the government more than $2 billion a year.

But the people affected by the change – mainly rich men – have put up an almighty resistance, portraying the measure as utterly iniquitous and – would you believe – unfair to the younger generation. “I’m not opposing this for myself ...”

However, the proposal has had strong support from the Australian Council of Social Service and the Grattan Institute.

The claim that the proposal would harm the young rests on the government’s intention not to index the $3 million threshold. If you left it unchanged forever, inflation would eventually cause the higher tax to apply to all the young.

Sorry, this is fanciful. There will be plenty of time to raise the threshold before then. Meanwhile, it will just apply to more, but slightly less-rich, old men (and a very few rich old women).

The other claim is that the extra tax would apply not just to interest and dividend income but also unrealised capital gains. This is true, but not as iniquitous as the protesters claim. It will mainly affect self-managed super funds.

It’s a messy way to tax earnings, but it’s difficult to avoid administratively because the existing 15 per cent tax on earnings is imposed on the fund, not its individual members.

Taxing capital gains that haven’t yet been realised may mean the tax has to be covered by money taken from elsewhere, but most people this well-off have plenty of money outside their super funds.

So, don’t believe it. These rich people just don’t want to pay more tax, and, as usual, are hunting around for the best counter-arguments they can find. I can afford to pay it, and so can they.

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Relax, student loans show there's fate worse than debt

If you believe what you see in the media, our youth are groaning under the weight of debt they’ve acquired under the Higher Education Loan Program (HELP), alias the Higher Education Contribution Scheme. But I don’t believe every sob story I hear. Soft heart, hard head is my motto.

The latest is an ABC report claiming HELP debt has helped entrench women’s economic disadvantage. And the Futurity Investment Group’s latest University Debt Report, released on Wednesday, claims to reveal “the long-term financial and social burden the cost of a university education is having”.

As I’ve written recently, Baby Boomers are leaving a terrible legacy for the rising generation: climate change, unaffordable homeownership, precarious employment and tax breaks reserved for the old.

I suppose that, to many youths, adding a HELP debt to all that seems like adding insult to injury. But really, compared with that catalogue, student debt is well down the list.

According to the ABC’s report, women say they are frustrated by the HELP debt system and feel disadvantaged. It claims graduates today “often look like” a woman who, having had her children and approaching her 40s, retrained as a teacher.

Seven years later and working part-time, she’s frustrated because, despite paying back $6000 on her debt, she’s only $2000 ahead of where she started. Another woman fears she’ll end up living in her car.

The report says women hold the majority of all student debt, and claims “researchers say the student debt system has exacerbated structural financial inequities between men and women”.

This is a reference to a paper by Mark Warburton of the University of Melbourne. But his message is actually more nuanced, saying student debt has “become unfair for women, but there is a way to fix this”.

Considering that more girls than boys go on to uni, it’s no surprise that women hold the majority of student debt – even if, on average, men’s debts are greater than women’s.

Women take longer to repay their debt, but this is actually a feature of the scheme that adds to its fairness.

According to the Futurity Investment Group’s survey of about 1000 people who attended uni, student debt is pretty much the source of all social evil.

We’re told that three in five respondents say their student debt has affected their ability to buy a home. One in three say it has had a “moderate to very large” effect on their ability to start a family. A slightly smaller proportion say it’s affected their ability to get married. (Maybe they mean afford a big-budget wedding.)

A bit under a third of respondents say it’s had a “moderate to very large” effect on their ability to change jobs.

Sorry, but my bulldust detector is pinging like crazy. I just don’t believe it. I’m always sceptical of the results of small-sample surveys sponsored by vested interests, with the results just happening to endorse the outfit’s sales pitch.

Speaking of which, the Futurity Investment Group sells a range of “education bonds” which “allow parents and grandparents to tax-effectively save and invest to accumulate the funding to support their family’s life-long education objectives”.

I suspect that a lot of the resentment of HELP debt stems from a self-serving belief that university education should be free, as it was for a relatively brief period under the Whitlam government.

But that was when less than the top 10 per cent of school-leavers went on to uni. Today it’s 40 per cent. And, as Warburton reminds us, the student loan system was introduced in 1989 so taxpayers could afford to offer higher education to many more young people.

The scheme was carefully designed – by Professor Bruce Chapman, of the Australian National University – to allow universities to charge tuition fees without that discouraging bright kids from poor families from seeking to better themselves.

To this end, the government would lend people the fee-money up front, which they’d have to start repaying only once they were earning the average wage. If you lost your job, the repayments would stop until you got back on your feet.

The government would index your outstanding debt to the inflation rate but, unlike every commercial loan you’ll ever get, it won’t charge you a “real” interest rate of several percentage points on top of the inflation rate.

This is why it’s a good thing, not a bad thing, that women (and men) working only part-time are given longer to repay. A commercial bank wouldn’t do you the favour. And since the whole basis of the scheme is that if you can’t afford to repay the loan, you don’t have to, people need to learn not to worry about student debt the way you should about normal debt. It’s a very different animal.

Even so, in recent years the Coalition tightened up the repayment arrangements in ways that make the scheme less fair, particularly for those working part-time. But, as Warburton says, Labor can fix this.

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