I think by now almost all of us are agreed that, to reduce climate change, we’ll have to achieve “net zero emissions” of greenhouse gases by 2050. But that’s a very tall order, involving much change to existing industries – many of which will continue seeking to delay the inevitable – and change in the way you and I use energy. So, how on earth is it going to come about?
We see the Albanese government and the state governments setting targets and beavering away on various parts of the puzzle, but if the feds have a grand plan for how it all comes together they’re doing a good job of keeping it to themselves.
So let me have a stab at detecting the method in our leaders’ madness. I’ll be leaning heavily on the work of the one person who is thinking out loud about how we can get to the 2050 objective, Tony Wood of the Grattan Institute.
First, let me acknowledge the truth the climate change deniers and foot-draggers make so much of: nothing we Australians do will stop the globe warming unless the other major emitting countries – America, China and those in the European Union – also achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
This is why, though we’ve known about the problem for decades, we’ve achieved so little to date. It’s just so easy to use others’ inaction as an excuse for our own. The truth is, all we can do is set a good example and urge the others to do likewise. Under the previous federal government, we were setting a bad example.
But remember this: our part in reducing global emissions is bigger than just reducing our own because we’re also one of the world’s largest exporters of fossil fuels. We need to reduce our complicity in other countries’ emissions by at least ceasing to expand our existing coal mines and gas fields.
Getting to net zero largely involves eliminating our use of coal, oil and gas, and replacing them with renewable sources of energy.
This history-making break from the past won’t happen by magic. Nor by sitting back and waiting for market forces to bring it about. No, it won’t happen until the government has the courage to make it happen, by saying just what has to happen, and by when.
As with the pandemic, and most of the problems we face, the responsibility is shared between the federal government and the states. This means the feds must take the lead, but in close consultation and co-operation with the states. Since the feds have most control over the purse strings, the wheels of co-operation are greased by offers of money.
As I see it, the basic strategy is simple: switch the production of electricity from coal and gas to renewables and batteries, and use clean electricity to replace the use of oil and gas. The beauty of this great reliance on electricity is that, though it will mean much disruption of particular industries, it doesn’t involve much disruption to the way we run our households.
Much of the heavy lifting with the major industrial emitters will be done by Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen’s recent reforms to the “safeguard mechanism”, aimed at achieving the promised 43 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030.
Much of the progress in eliminating our use of oil will come from shifting to electric vehicles. Make sure your next car is electric, and you’ve got that box ticked with minimal disruption to your life. It’s the various governments’ job to get the price of EVs down to something more reasonable and ensure sufficient charging points.
Which brings us to the elimination of natural gas, the subject of Wood’s Grattan report earlier this week. It would suit the blatant self-interest of the gas industry for gas to be seen as the “transition fuel”: we move electricity production from coal to gas and later to renewables.
But 2050 – and even worse climate change - isn’t that far away, and we don’t have time for a leisurely transition. We must move straight to renewables and storage (batteries), using gas to provide only residual capacity, balancing the last 10 per cent or so.
Household use of gas – for cooking, water heating and space heating – is big only in Victoria, NSW and the ACT. About 30 per cent of Australian homes are already all-electric, and Wood calculates that about 40 per of those that have gas are in a position to upgrade to all-electric.
Although electric appliances are dearer than gas appliances, electricity itself is cheaper – meaning savings longer-term. It’s also cleaner and free of fumes that damage your health. So, being obliged to become all-electric is no great imposition. Even so, governments should move all their own social housing to all-electric, offer tax incentives to landlords and low-interest loans to homeowners.
Governments should ban new gas connections and phase out the sale of gas appliances, so the last remaining gas appliances are replaced with electric. Set firm rules and deadlines, and we can rely on market forces to do the rest.
