City and country problems all demand higher taxes

At last we've settled on an election issue of substance: did Kevin Rudd use notes in the TV debate and was this against the rules? And that's not all: did he rustle his notes and, if so, was this deliberate or just a nervous mannerism?

The two leaders' aim in the debate was the same as their aim in this campaign: to make it to election day while giving as few commitments as possible about what they'll do in the next three years.

I wouldn't mind so much if they were trying to stay unencumbered, able to respond to any eventuality. But actually they're trying to create the illusion that everything they have planned will solve our problems without any price to be paid.

Tony Abbott keeps telling us about all the taxes he plans to abolish but not how he'll cover the loss of revenue, except to say he'll get rid of government waste. Sure.

In response to Rudd's embarrassing "cheap scare campaign" on the goods and services tax he assured us that "the GST is not going to change", but avoided answering a question on how long that guarantee would last.

By the end of the next day, however, the pressure had become irresistible and he ruled out changing the GST for as long as an Abbott government lasts. In modern campaigning, tough issues aren't debated, they're closed off.

And on when Sydney will get a second airport, both men are evasive. In the 40 years since Gough Whitlam asserted "you're getting Galston", successive governments have pushed the decision aside.

These guys touch on matters of concern to ordinary people's ordinary lives but they rarely get to grips with them. Consider the findings of the latest Ipsos Mind and Mood report on differences between the city and the country, Life in Two Australias. A series of 16 group discussions in Sydney, Melbourne, Tamworth, Townsville and Bunbury finds that, whatever their complaints, country people prefer the country and city people prefer the city, though country people do seem more effusive.

They see their lives as low-stress, with friendly faces, open spaces and manageable mortgages. It's a cleaner environment where their kids can get dirty. Parents feel their kids get great formal education but are also more rounded and grounded in their social and communication skills.

"Skinny-dipping, fishing, four-wheel driving, open fires and bartering were cherished aspects of a free-range, unconstrained regional lifestyle," the researchers, led by Dr Rebecca Huntley, report.

And the big drawback? "It is healthier to live in the country unless you're sick." Poorer access to good quality health services was a key disadvantage of regional centres, sending the sick onto long local waiting lists or down the highway in search of help in the city.

Although country participants felt they had a monopoly on community spirit, city people valued social inclusion and connection with their neighbourhoods. And though their green spaces and open places may be smaller, they're valued.

The high cost of housing and rising living costs were key motivations for considering a move to the regions. Country life looks attractive to stressed-out city residents, young families and retirees.

But could they leave family and friends? What about the horror stories of inadequate country health services? Would there be enough shops and enough entertainments to keep them amused? And would they be welcomed? "Rumours of gossip-laden, judgmental, close-knit social networks that could be hard to break into fed fears of potential social isolation," the researchers find.

How does this discussion of ordinary life fit with the preoccupations of the election campaign? Well, it's clear adequate healthcare and access to doctors is a major concern for country people.

But health is one of the issues being closed off. There's a lot more needing to be spent. But Labor is being pilloried for its increased spending (on health as much as anything) and the focus is on criticising tax increases, cutting company tax, abolishing new taxes and swearing never to increase old ones.

For city-siders, however, the big issue is roads and public transport. "The lengthy commute in bumper-to-bumper traffic is literally driving people out of our capital cities to regional Australia in hope of recovering wasted hours spent in the car each day," the researchers say. City drivers feel forced to take to their cars because of inadequate public transport, while country people envy their trains, trams, buses and taxis.

Ah, here we may have found a match. Although Rudd hasn't had much to say about roads and transport, Abbott says he hopes he'll become known as an infrastructure prime minister and reels off a list of city road projects he wants to fund.

Sorry, but I'm not convinced. The Coalition doesn't seem to have learnt what I thought everyone realised by now: building more expressways solves congestion only for long as it takes more people to switch to driving their cars.

The problem is reduced only by improved public transport. But Abbott would revert to the view that the feds don't finance urban public transport projects.

So leave it to the states. But they've just had their finances crimped by his promise never to repair the premiers' biggest but ailing source of revenue, the GST.

And both sides' belief that government debt is evil condemns us to a life of inadequate public infrastructure.

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Labor first out of blocks in race to mislead

I guess you've heard the news: the Gillard government has obtained new analysis of data from the Bureau of Statistics showing that Tony Abbott's election commitments inflict brutal damage on working families, particularly those in western Sydney, increasing taxes and cutting support to families.

According to Treasurer Wayne Swan, Abbott's commitments include scrapping the tripling of the tax-free threshold, axing the new schoolkids' bonus and abolishing family payments from the household assistance package introduced in June last year.

The government tripled the tax-free threshold from $6000 to $18,200 a year from July last year, we're told, delivering tax cuts to all taxpayers earning up to $80,000 a year. Most of these people received savings of at least $300 a year, with many part-time workers receiving up to $600.

The schoolkids' bonus is worth $410 a year for primary school students and $820 a year for secondary school students to families who receive family tax benefit part A.

The household assistance package increased payments to families who receive benefit part A by up to $110 per child and by $70 per family for those receiving benefit part B. The median family income in Fairfield is $106,000. This family, with two children both in primary school, father working full-time on $86,000 a year and mother working part-time on $20,000 will be almost $1500 a year worse off, we're told. The mother will pay $600 more in tax and they will lose $820 in schoolkids' bonus and $72 in other benefits.

The median family income in Penrith is $118,000. This family, with two primary and one high school student, the father earning $70,000 and the mother on $48,000, will be $2300 a year worse off, we're told. The father will pay $250 more in tax, the mother will pay $300 more, and they'll lose $1640 in schoolkids' bonus and $108 in other benefits.

Terrible, eh? There's just one small problem. This stuff is so misleading as to be quite dishonest.

For a start, this is just politically inspired figuring, which doesn't deserve the aura of authority the government has sought to give it by having it released by the Treasurer with a reference to "new analysis of Bureau of Statistics data" and allowing the media to refer to it as "modelling".

It's true you'd have to look up the bureau's census figures to get the details of the median family in a particular suburb, but after that the "modelling" could be done on the back of an envelope.

There's a key omission from Labor's description of its wonderfully generous household assistance package: why it was necessary. Its purpose was to compensate low and middle-income families for the cost of the carbon tax. Since the Coalition promises to abolish the carbon tax, Abbott has said that all the compensation for the tax will also go. (Strictly speaking, the schoolkids' bonus is linked to the mining tax, but the Coalition is also promising to abolish this tax, and Abbott has said the bonus, too, will go.)

The trick is that Abbott has yet to give any details of how or when these concessions would go and what they'd be replaced with. But this hasn't inhibited Labor. It has happily assumed what the Coalition intends and is presenting its assumptions as hard facts.

The most glaring omission from Labor's calculation of the hip-pocket effect of all this is its failure to acknowledge the saving households would make from the abolition of the carbon tax.

Based on Treasury's original calculations, this should be worth about $515 a year per household, including $172 a year from lower electricity prices and $78 a year from lower gas prices.

Some Labor supporters argue that even if the carbon tax is abolished, prices won't fall. This is highly unlikely. The state government tribunals that regulate electricity and gas prices would insist on it. And a Coalition government would no doubt instruct the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to police the wider price decrease.

Labor's repeated claim to have tripled the tax-free threshold from $6000 to $18,200 a year has always been literally true, but highly misleading. That's because it conveniently ignores the complex operation of the low-income tax offset.

When you allow for this offset, which Labor has reduced and changed without removing, the effective tax-free threshold has increased by a much smaller $4500-odd from $16,000 to $20,542. This explains why the tax cut arising from the seemingly huge increase in the threshold is so modest (for many, $5.80 a week) and also why the move yields no saving to anyone earning more than $80,000 a year. For them, the threshold increase has been "clawed back".

The idea of a Coalition government bringing about an actual increase in income tax is hard to imagine. Labor omits to mention Abbott has promised a modest tax cut, though he hasn't said when it would happen.

Labor also omits to mention that the generous schoolkids' bonus replaced its earlier 50 per cent education tax refund, which offered savings of up to almost $400 a year on the eligible expenses of primary school students and up to almost $800 for secondary students.

Labor has assumed that Abbott would merely abolish the schoolkids' bonus without reinstating the education tax refund. Maybe he would; maybe he wouldn't - he hasn't yet said. But only a one-eyed Labor supporter would trust Labor to read Abbott's mind.

It didn't take the announcement of an election date to ensure the informal election campaign would begin as soon as we were back at work in January. It's a daunting thought.

But at least it gives people like me plenty of time to demonstrate the dishonesty of the claims being made.

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Gillard talks tough in election year

THIS is shaping up as an unusual election year - and not because Julia Gillard has announced the election's date eight months in advance. With luck it won't be the trip to fantasyland the politicians on both sides usually take us on, in which they pretend to be able to solve all our problems without pain and we suspend disbelief.

Predictably, Gillard's unprecedented step in naming the date in her speech to the National Press Club on Wednesday almost totally diverted the media's attention from everything else she said. This is a pity because the rest is worthy of note. It was a lot more honest than you'd expect to hear from our politicians in an election year.

On our overblown whinges about the cost of living, Gillard was braver than this government has been before. Try this: ''The price we pay for electricity and gas has increased by 120 per cent in the last decade and 26 per cent in the last two years.

''Despite low inflation and low interest rates, we still feel these pressures on living standards.'' A subtle way of reminding people to put their one legitimate complaint (which it took Labor far too long to challenge) into the context of low price rises generally.

Here's something more sophisticated: ''Superannuation returns are only just beginning to recover from the hit delivered by the global financial crisis. Capital city housing prices have not grown at all in the past 12 to 18 months, compared to the average yearly gains of 8 to 10 per cent in the years before the GFC.

''These two impacts have us worried that our dreams of financial security are harder to achieve than ever before. Today, we save over 10 per cent of household income. In the years before the GFC, we used to save nothing as a nation.'' (She means Australian households as a whole saved nothing. Add in the public and corporate sectors and the nation saved a lot.)

But here's the stab of reality: ''It was a phase that could not last.''

Indeed it couldn't.

Next, some frank talk about the strong dollar. Our dollar has appreciated about 60 per cent in the past three years, she said. This presented a challenge to our economic diversity and international price competitiveness.

So what's the answer? ''Economic orthodoxy prescribes that falling terms of trade [the prices of exports relative to the prices of imports] and falling interest rates will result in a fall in the value of a currency.

''But even though our terms of trade peaked around 15 months ago and interest rates have been falling, our dollar is now actually higher.''

And ''over the coming year or two we expect to move beyond the peak of the investment phase of the mining boom''. (I expect it to come sooner than that.) ''Ordinarily, economists would tell you this change, bringing with it a lessening of demand for [foreign] capital, would be associated with a reduction in the Australian dollar that would assist export-exposed industries like manufacturing, tourism and [other] services that are exported, like education.

''However, just as the dollar's strength has persisted in this period of declining terms of trade and interest rates, we need to be prepared if it persists despite a lessening of demand for [inflows of financial] capital.''

It's all true. The sad fact is, economists do not have a good handle on what drives a country's exchange rate.

What's more, ''we cannot control a number of factors that have kept our dollar strong: like the weakness in the global economy, the close-to-zero interest rates of many nations and the increasing view that Australia is something of a safe haven''.

Good point. Remember, the exchange rate is a relative price. Our economic prospects may not be brilliant, but as long as they're better than for the other developed countries our currency may well stay stronger than theirs.

So Gillard isn't promising or predicting any marked decline in the dollar. She's warning our export and import-competing industries to adapt to a higher-than-comfortable exchange rate.

''Where we can make a difference is to other factors that matter for competitiveness and economic diversity. So we can and must focus on increasing skills, building a national culture of innovation, rolling out the national broadband network, investing in infrastructure, improving regulation and leveraging our proximity to, and knowledge of, a rising Asia into a competitive advantage.'' (I fear we're spending far more than we should on broadband.)

Next, a frank reminder of how skint the government is (and will be) because the recovery in the economy since the mild recession of 2009 hasn't led to the usual strength of recovery in tax collections.

''Revenue to government for every [dollar] of gross domestic product has been at its lowest since the recession of the early 1990s. In other words, for a given amount of economic income generated, less money is finishing in the public purse, to be used for the Australian people.''

Though the government has stuck to its medium-term fiscal strategy and spending is tightly constrained, she said, the amount collected from all sources - but particularly from company tax - is significantly lower than economists forecast.

This was part of a trend being felt worldwide and involves both domestic and global factors. ''The domestic factors include our nation being in the investment phase of the mining boom, not its peak production phase; the new saving and consumption approach of families; the slowdown in capital gains and the lack of profitability of many firms in trade-exposed areas due to the high dollar.''

Some of these factors were cyclical (temporary) and some would be longer lived.

Now for the election-year punch line: ''With pressure on revenue, it is the wrong time to be spending without outlining long-term savings strategies which show what will be forgone [not foregone, Julia] in order to fund the new expenditure.''

Gillard confirmed her intention to spend big on disability and school education. ''In the lead-up to and in the budget we will announce substantial new structural savings that will maintain the stability of the budget and make room for key Labor priorities.''

In a pre-election budget?

That will be new.

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Perhaps now politicians will stop trashing their reputations

Let's hope it's not back to politics as usual. And let's hope the fortnight or so since the voters' collective refusal to award the election to either of the major parties has allowed both sides time to reflect on something that hasn't troubled them to date: when will the political profession decide to call a halt to its trashing of its own reputation?

The process by which our politicians have slowly destroyed their credibility with the electorate has been running for so long it's easy for them - and us - to be unconscious of what is happening. But it reached a new low in this campaign, so it shouldn't have been such a surprise when the electorate couldn't decide who it distrusted less.

The disdain with which we've come to regard our politicians struck me when I considered the success of the mining industry's advertising campaign against the resource super profits tax. With world coal and iron ore prices at record highs, the largely foreign-owned mining companies are raking in unbelievable profits.

The Labor government said the new tax was needed to ensure the people who actually owned these resources - you and me - got a fairer price for them. The miners claimed the tax would cripple them, discourage further development and cause people to lose their jobs.

You might have expected the public to respond to these over-the-top claims with scepticism - they would say that, wouldn't they?; whoever likes paying more taxes? - but it seems many people believed them.

(Think about it: we were being asked to believe the Secretary to the Treasury, the high priest of economic rationalism, backed up by two highly regarded economists and the chief executive of a major business association, was proposing a tax that would lay waste to the mining industry and seriously damage the economy.)

So why was the word of fat-cat miners favoured over that of our own government? Because the credibility of our politicians is at rock bottom. Even big businesses on the make are judged more likely to be telling the truth.

Surveys of the reputation of various occupations show politicians well down the list (but above journalists, advertising people and car salesmen). The company pollies keep on the list makes it clear: the public has a low opinion of people they have come to believe seek to manipulate them and tell them things that aren't true.

The more politicians have relied on the techniques of market research - polling, focus groups, advertising and direct mail - the more they've sought to con us.

Top of the list of behaviour that has cost politicians our respect is broken promises. We have seen it so many times from both sides we have come to view all political promises with suspicion. Consider the possibility that Gillard's last-minute promise to build the on-again-off-again Parramatta to Epping rail link cost Labor as many votes as it gained.

It will always be that some promises aren't kept because they have been overtaken by events and it would be foolish, even impossible, to press on with them. But so many promises have been broken many voters believe they are often given without any intention to keep them.

My guess is the process is more cavalier. Pollies think: if I win that's when I'll worry about whether I can honour them all.

The answer is for pollies to be a lot more cautious in making promises. But why do they make so many? Because of the way, under the influence of marketing techniques, election campaigns have come to take the committed voters for granted and focus on winning the votes of swinging voters in marginal electorates. Swinging voters are judged to be people with little interest in politics, whose only thought is what's in it for them and their families. Hence the temptation to keep promising goodies.

Election campaigns have become increasingly unreal. The pollies create a fairytale world in which nothing bad ever happens. They'll spend more on this and that, but without increasing taxes and, of course, while also eliminating deficits and debt.

In this imaginary world, the law of opportunity cost doesn't operate. We can have everything we want, without price. The pollies encourage people to believe the government can - and should - solve all their problems. Is it any wonder disillusionment is rife?

Often - as with all the pseudo-sympathetic talk about the rising cost of living in this campaign - the pollies seek to appear empathetic while carefully avoiding promising to do anything. They think they're being clever, but when people gain the impression you're going to fix their problem and you don't, they feel just as cheated as if you really had promised it.

In Queensland, voters feel they were ambushed by Anna Bligh because she waited until after the election to announce unpopular tax changes and privatisations.

That's the "positive" way politicians have damaged their reputations. Of late they've resorted more to negative methods: trashing each other. This campaign boiled down to rival scare campaigns about Work Choices, the mining tax, the "Woollies and Coles tax", mountainous debt and boat people.

Politicians wouldn't resort to scare campaigns and negative advertising if they didn't work. They play on the gullibility of people who don't think much about politics. But what works in the short term comes at a long-term cost to the politicians' credibility. The same goes for oppositions automatically opposing everything governments do and the endemic abuse of statistics.

Many voters are naive and gullible. But when eventually they realise they've been conned, they switch not to reasoned scepticism but utter cynicism about the untrustworthiness of our political leaders.

Many politicians believe John Howard lost office because voters had simply "stopped listening" to him. Those who deposed Kevin Rudd concluded voters had "stopped listening". If this isn't ringing alarm bells in the political profession, it should be.

The hung parliament offers politicians the chance of a circuit breaker in this mutually destructive process.

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Why political rivalry reduces voters' options

Simple economic theory tells us competition leads to increased choice. But as the election campaign showed, competition between the two main parties seems to be reducing the choice we're offered.

Before the election, many people complained about how unengaging the campaign was. It didn't seem to be aimed at people with brains. It seemed dominated by trivia. The two sides were locked in furious argument, but the policy differences between them seemed minor.

We were offered no real choice on climate change, industrial relations, the harsh treatment of boat people, the war in Afghanistan or economic management (the choice between a budget surplus in 2012-13 of $3.5 billion or $6.2 billion).

The main issues of genuine choice were the mining tax and the national broadband network. And even these didn't get a lot of attention. I'd like to believe the electorate's failure to decide which of the parties it wanted and its tendency to turn to minor parties and independents was a reaction to the unattractive choices we faced. Let's hope the pollies learn never to stage such an empty campaign again.

I don't deny the media's part in the campaign's superficiality. Every available diversion from serious discussion of policy choices was seized on. There was more "race calling" - Who won the leaders' debate? Which side won the week's campaigning? Who do the polls say is winning? - as politics was turned into a spectator sport rather than an earnest evaluation of policies.

One lesson from behavioural economics is that when consumers face excessive, confusing choice they tend to avoid making a decision. In this case, however, it seems it was lack of choice that caused voters to be so indecisive.

Most economists believe choice is a virtue in itself (true) and the more choice the better (above a certain point, not true). They love competition because their simple neo-classical model of markets predicts competition leads to wider choice.

So how come competition between political parties seems to be reducing choice? The simple market model rests on the assumption of "atomistic" competition: a large number of small sellers, none big enough to be able to influence the price, with each needing to give customers exactly what they want or be forced out of business.

In the modern world, few, if any, markets work that way. Much of our increased prosperity is owed to firms' pursuit of economies of scale. But this has created a tendency for firms to get much bigger and for many markets to be dominated by a small number of large firms.

Hence the real-world prevalence of "oligopoly". Clearly, under oligopoly - and duopoly, a form of it particularly common in Australia - there's only a small number of sellers and thus less choice, although each firm is likely to offer a full product range.

Under oligopoly, firms compete for market share, with increased share of the market being the main way they seek to maximise profits. But because each firm has a fairly big share of the market, each has the ability to influence the market price and thus affect the fortunes of the others.

This means competition in oligopolised markets takes on a form unknown in the basic market model: rivalry. Firms focus on each other and never make a move without first considering how their rivals may react to that move.

Here we're getting closer to competition in the political "market". Most people imagine governments, holding the reins of power, concentrate on deciding what to do and whether the voting customers are likely to react well or badly.

It's always a surprise to people to realise how much the behaviour (or expected behaviour) of oppositions influences the behaviour of governments. You and I may regard oppositions as largely irrelevant until the next election, but governments never do. That's rivalry.

Hugh Mackay says the key to competition is to focus on the customers and their needs, not your competitors and what they're doing. I think he's right, but it's tough advice to follow in an oligopolistic market.

The same goes for politicians. In their case, I think rivalry - obsession with your competitors - and the fear of taking a misstep help explain why both sides converge on the centre and adopt similar policies.

The market analogy takes us only so far. In a duopoly the two rivals share the market and fight for greater market share only at the margin. Politics, by contrast, is a winner-takes-all market. Lose the election and you get a zero market share.

Perhaps this all-or-nothing feature of political competition tends to make the parties more risk averse. Maybe it's the case that, just as oligopolists prefer to avoid competing on price, so the major political parties prefer to avoid competing on policy. In this campaign, both sides wanted to battle over perceptions of competence rather than my policy versus yours.

But this doesn't explain why the aversion to policy choice is relatively recent, why we now live in post-ideological times. I suspect the reason is the advent of what I call "scientific" politics, the rise of backroom specialists who use polling, focus groups and other market research techniques to peer into the minds of voters, particularly those judged to be swinging voters in marginal seats.

Knowing so clearly the likes and dislikes of key voters - chosen explicitly for their lack of ideological commitment - probably drives the major parties towards common ground, encourages pragmatism over idealism and prompts them to offer bribes rather than reforms.

Let's hope the hung parliament causes them to reconsider this form of scientific "progress".

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Revolution of thinking voter turns politics green

Sorry but I'm not convinced a hung parliament is a terrible thing. It may end up being a good thing. I see it as the revolt of thinking voters against an election campaign that was aimed almost exclusively at unthinking voters.

Labor's been given an almighty kick in the pants but there was no enthusiastic embrace of the Liberals, whose campaign was almost completely negative. The parties should take it as a warning that if they want to win sufficient votes to form government in their own right next time, they should offer more sensible policies and arguments.

The big winner is the emerging third party, the Greens. Labor's share of the primary vote fell by almost 5 percentage points but the Coalition's share rose by only about 1.4 percentage points, with the Greens' share up by 3.6 points.

Those figures make it seem as though all the Greens' additional votes came from Labor. In truth, they show only the Coalition's net gain in votes, concealing those votes it too lost to the Greens. Had the optional preferential voting system been available, I'm sure many of those who voted for the Greens wouldn't have allowed their preferences to flow back to either party.

The swing to the Greens was even greater in the Senate, where their primary vote of almost 13 per cent is expected to give them an extra senator in each state, with some of those positions taken from the Libs. This will lift the Greens' total senators to nine, giving them the balance of power in the Senate from July next year and probably for at least the next six years.

So unattractive was the choice the main parties offered that I'm sure people voted Greens for various reasons. But no doubt concern about lack of "real action" on climate change was the most prominent. Consider the way people concerned about global warming - still a majority of voters - were dudded by the two main parties. Both went to the last election promising to introduce (similar) emissions trading schemes; both went to this election promising not to introduce such schemes.

As Dr Richard Denniss of the Australia Institute observes in a paper to be released today, this election has shown just how much of a challenge new issues such as climate change are for old political structures. Despite much of the election allegedly being fought on economic management, neither Labor nor the Libs had to explain how they could claim to be "good economic managers" yet they were determined to ignore all economic evidence about the best way to tackle climate change.

The Libs describe their approach as "direct action" - which translates as support for the regulation and government intervention once primarily associated with Labor. Labor's major contribution to the climate change policy debate during the campaign was its proposal for a "citizens' assembly", which sounds reminiscent of the Greens' historical preference for "consensus-based" decision-making. "The Greens, on the other hand, have been pushing for the economic rationalist approach of relying on a carbon tax and price signals," Denniss says.

Despite the Liberals' pious condemnation of waste in the campaign, most of their direct action policies would be riddled with waste, with the likely cost per tonne of emissions reduced by their subsidy schemes far exceeding any price per tonne contemplated under emissions trading or a carbon tax. The same is true of Labor's proposed cash-for-clunkers scheme.

The parties' failure to gain a majority in their own right means neither can claim a Mandate for the policies they took to the election. The side that finally reaches a deal with the independents will probably have had to change its policies to achieve that deal.

But this sudden need for policy flexibility in response to unexpected circumstances could be good news for those silly sausages who worry about saving the planet. By my reckoning, three of the four members expected to hold the balance of power in the lower house - the three country independents and the Greens MP for Melbourne - accept the need for a price on carbon. And then, of course, there's the Greens' balance of power in the Senate.

There's no substitute for a government with a logically consistent set of policies (and no reason only one major party should have a monopoly on the desire to save the economy from the ravages of climate change). But for the benefit of those independents - or anyone else - seeking a coherent approach to the problem, the Australia Institute's paper, Once More With Feeling, sets out six principles for good policy design.

First, remove subsidies that encourage the use of greenhouse gas-emitting fuels. These include the concessional taxation of company cars and (controversially for the country independents) the fuel tax credit scheme.

Second, introduce a price on greenhouse gas emissions. Given the rejection and abandonment of Labor's carbon pollution reduction scheme, a simple carbon tax - as already proposed by the Greens - may be the best starting place.

Third, remove existing subsidies to renewable energy that don't deliver low cost of abatement or help develop a domestic industry. For instance, the present subsidy for photovoltaic solar panels on rooftops has been found to cost $447 per tonne of emissions avoided. As for developing a local industry, the panels are imported.

Fourth, invest in public transport and other infrastructure to ensure consumers can more easily respond to the higher price of fossil fuels.

Fifth, regulate to enhance energy efficiency where existing market failures reduce the ability of higher energy prices to achieve reduced energy consumption.

And finally, provide business investors with certainty about the direction, if not the destination, of legislative change.

Two-party government has reached a sad state when neither side is offering such a sensible - dare I say, rational - approach to our greatest and most pressing economic threat.

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Voters censure Labor's lack of principles

The one thing we can be sure of is Labor has suffered a huge reverse. While we wait to learn which party will form government, it's instructive to ponder what it did wrong.

By all the rules of federal politics, Labor should have romped home. The rules say first-term governments get an extension to finish proving their worth. They say governments get tossed out after they've allowed the economy to bomb, not after they've seemingly avoided a recession. They also say voters distinguish between federal and state. But one rule has stood up: oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. This disaster for Labor is its own fault.

Labor has been a remarkably timid government. Saturday's failure could make it even more so, but that would be fatal. Similarly, the conclusion Labor's reversal was caused just by a bad election campaign would be delusional.

No, if Labor wants to learn from its drubbing it needs to draw the obvious lesson: voters punished it for its lack of principles. Those who still voted for it did so with no enthusiasm and many registered their protest by turning to the Greens.

The great paradox of politics is that though voters hate change and hip-pocket pain, they want to be led by people with convictions and the courage of them. First Kevin Rudd and then Julia Gillard were too conscious of the former and oblivious to the latter.

Every politician wants to be re-elected, but good politicians don't want just to preside over the economy and keep it on track, they also want to reform it. They understand the hard part of politics is getting re-elected and making reforms. When the going got tough, Rudd threw overboard the economic reform that, along with rolling back the Work Choices false reform, had been at the centre of his case for election: introduction of an emissions trading scheme.

The end of Rudd's remarkably long honeymoon with the electorate can be dated to his decision to give up on climate change rather than fight for its approval by a joint sitting following a double dissolution.

Even those relieved to be free of a "great, big, new tax" were shocked by such a cowardly repudiation of one of Labor's core values. Sensing this, the Liberals immediately switch from criticising the scheme to criticising Labor's abandonment of its "greatest moral challenge". With this act Labor sent the electorate a signal: we're not moral.

When Gillard deposed Rudd and set about getting the government back on track she had an opportunity to redeem the position to some extent, but again Labor's lack of conviction let it down. She toyed with taking tentative steps towards a carbon price, but in the end decided on a gimmick the public instantly saw through: the 150-person citizens assembly. The end of Gillard's own brief honeymoon can be dated to that gutless decision.

Voters work on instincts and impressions, not rational analysis. They can smell a politician who puts self-preservation ahead of the national interest. They can smell it even when they're not sure they fancy the measures need to advance the national interest. And they're never impressed. But Labor's loss of principles extends beyond its loss of core belief in the need for reform. It also involves standards of acceptable behaviour in public life. It's now clear many voters were repelled by Labor's ruthless treatment of Rudd, and by Gillard's part in it despite all her protestations of loyalty.

No policy reform principles and no personal principles turned out to be a deadly combination. Gillard stands revealed as little more than a careerist. Such people never endear themselves to the electorate.

Labor should dispense with the unprincipled Sussex Street thugs who were behind-the-scenes urgers on every major false step it made in its first term. It was they who (acting behind Gillard and Wayne Swan) persuaded Rudd to abandon his climate-change commitment, they who staged his beheading in a way that offended so many Labor supporters and they who advised Gillard to rush to an election while her honeymoon lasted, when she should have allowed more dust to settle and given voters more time to get to know her.

These are the same geniuses who've brought us the debacle of the Carr-Iemma-Rees-Keneally government (which itself contributed to Gillard's drubbing). They're uncomprehending bunglers of the first order. They're so ruthless and cynical they've lost consciousness of the electorate's basic decency.

They're all expediency and no values, all tactics and no strategy. But with all their pragmatism and tricky tactics, they can't deliver the goods.

Labor must abandon its obsession with controlling the 24-hour news cycle. The spin doctors kept Rudd in control of the news for the best part of three years, but where did that get Labor in the end? This preoccupation with control and an unending stream of trivial "announceables" distracts ministers and their departments from real work. The excessive control antagonises the press gallery, which waits its chance to strike back when you're vulnerable (as Rudd discovered as soon as his ratings slipped).

Apparatchik Labor's lack of convictions saps it of the will to fight for needed but controversial reforms; the 24-hour spin doctors' dark arts sap it of the ability to fight. It's a snare and a delusion. Senior ministers get so used to relying on media stunts and emotional button-pushing their ability to explain and defend complicated policies atrophies.

That Labor ended up on the defensive over its enviable economic performance shows how badly it was served by its media minders. Their stock in trade is always to change the subject, never to stand and fight; to bamboozle, never to educate.

Labor's Hollow Men period has brought it disaster. Time to recover some values.

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The deficit we really should worry about

The biggest and most worrying deficit in this election campaign has been the policy deficit: the reluctance of both sides to debate any aspect of economic management bar the budget.

What has passed for economic debate has proceeded from the proposition that the federal budget equals the economy. So let's see if we can get through a discussion of our economic policy challenges without further mention of that instrument.

The most obvious disappointment about this campaign is both sides are pledging to do nothing serious in the coming three years about the greatest and most pressing threat to the economy: climate change.

Left unchecked, climate change is likely to destroy or significantly damage much of our stock of private and public physical capital. To avoid the small cost of growth forgone as we tackle the problem, we're willing to risk incurring much greater losses.

Because of both sides' unwillingness to impose on voters unpleasantness roughly akin to the introduction of the goods and services tax, they're willing to waste taxpayers' money on ineffective incentive schemes while also causing the cost of eventual action to be higher than it need be. (That's assuming we wake up before we reach the point where the damage has become irreversible.)

At a more conventional level, the glaring need neither side seems to have noticed, much less wanted to do anything about, is what could be called our productivity deficit: after perking up mightily in the 1990s, our rate of productivity improvement - measured as output per hour of labour - slumped throughout the noughties.

What should we be doing to lift our productivity performance? That's what we should have been debating over the past five weeks. Failing that, it's a question we should be setting our minds to during the coming parliamentary term.

One reason we haven't had more soul-searching over the productivity deficit is that its adverse effect on our rate of economic growth - and continually rising material living standard - has been offset by the resources boom.

National income has been growing strongly because the world has been paying so much more for our coal and iron ore and because investment in new mines and facilities has been so strong. This looks likely to continue for some years yet.

But with this easy prosperity come two challenges: cyclical and structural. The mildness of the recession means we're already close to full employment, so it may not be long before the Reserve Bank is struggling to control a booming economy with interest-rate rises.

Neither public nor politicians has any real understanding of the way being at full employment constrains our ability to press ahead with every job-creating project we dream up. We're locked in a deficient-demand world view.

The structural problem has two elements: worrying about the perceived Dutch Disease problem (the temporarily high exchange rate wipes out other export industries, particularly manufacturing and tourism, so we're left with a vacuum when the resources boom ends) and deciding how to ensure we gain some lasting benefit from all the extra revenue flowing into government coffers.

If we're not careful we could end up with the same disastrous solution to both problems: pumping a lot of taxpayers' money into propping up declining manufacturing industries in the name of "value-adding". Their weak performance in this campaign suggests both sides are capable of such madness.

Our non-mining future lies in high-value services, not manufacturing, so the right answer is to increase our public (and private) investment in education, training and research. All such investment should raise our productivity in due course.

We all know our present social and economic infrastructure leaves much to be desired. We'll need to put a lot more money into it but this campaign's obsession with that thing I promised not to mention again suggests that, whoever wins, we won't be spending (and thus borrowing) as much as we need to.

Infrastructure investment adds to demand in the short term but also adds to supply (production capacity) in the medium term and productivity improvement (output per unit of input) in the longer term.

So, remembering our full-employment constraint, a great challenge facing the economic managers will be to (temporarily) constrain consumer spending to make room for more business investment and public infrastructure spending.

How? Good question. Maybe we could speed up the phased increase in compulsory superannuation saving.

Remember, however, that part of the solution to inadequate infrastructure is to use the existing infrastructure more efficiently. That means better pricing of it (with the net proceeds from that pricing also helping to fund additional investment). But better pricing requires a little political courage, something neither side has displayed in this campaign.

One area where supply-side reform is urgently needed is housing, where housing construction has fallen well behind the formation of additional households, forcing up house prices and rents. We need to remove the state and local governments' obstructions to medium-density housing and the release of serviced land.

The issue of population growth and immigration was raised in the campaign but not properly debated because both sides were just using it to dog-whistle about boat people.

The unthinking advocates of high immigration need to understand it makes a negative contribution to productivity improvement (by worsening the ratio of physical capital to labour) and demands increased investment in business equipment, housing and public infrastructure.

Unless the goal is growth for its own sake, it's a dumb way to go about raising material living standards (except those of the immigrants). It also greatly increases our difficulty in achieving targets for the reduction of our emissions of greenhouse gases.

It's all very well for the advocates of high immigration to say the underlying problem is one of inadequate infrastructure, not immigration as such. What do they propose to do about it - abolish the states? Who will pay for the extra infrastructure (on top of the existing backlog) and how will it be financed? By privately issued, but heavily publicly subsidised (and at least implicitly government-guaranteed) infrastructure bonds? That'll fix it. Not.

We do need to undertake a careful, evidence-based examination of what is a "sustainable" population, in which the economists, technological optimists and natural scientists box it out. All sides need to confront the elements of truth in the other sides' positions.

All this is what Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott should have debated over the past five weeks, but didn't. Whoever wins, the economy will lose.

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Both sides fall victim to budget humbuggery

It's not just Tony Abbott who has been running from a debate on the economy. Both he and Julia Gillard have avoided serious discussion of the economy in this election.

Federal election campaigns usually focus on the economy, but this time both sides have been obsessed with something much narrower; the federal budget.

Managing the economy involves concern about inflation, unemployment, interest rates and - conventionally - what is needed to promote economic growth and further raise our material standard of living.

Promoting economic growth is about reforming government intervention in markets, reforming the tax system so it does less to discourage or distort economic activity, devoting sufficient resources to education, training and research, and ensuring adequate provision of infrastructure.

These days, it also involves taking steps to ensure the malfunctioning of the natural environment doesn't impose great costs and disruption on the economy - through climate change and other problems.

In that agenda, the federal budget is just a management tool, a means not an end in itself. And yet that's what it has become in this campaign.

Abbott's mantra has been his promises to ''end the waste, repay the debt, stop the new taxes and stop the boats''. The last of those is clearly non-economic, but the first three aren't so much economic as budgetary.

Why this diversion? Because, when you haven't thought much about the future or aren't game to broach in an election campaign the unpopular changes you know are needed (such as Gillard on climate change), all that leaves is the state of the economy.

Trouble is, it's going quite well. We have inflation and unemployment back under control. Interest rates are lower than they were at the last election.

Of all the developed economies, the one with the least cause for worry about the size of its budget deficits and the amount of its government debt is Australia. But the punters don't know that, and ''deficit'' and ''debt'' have such negative connotations they're an easy way to scare the untutored.

Most of the debate on deficits and debt has been silly and plays on voters' unsophistication. Both sides have solemnly promised what neither may be able to deliver: a budget surplus in three years time. Economists are hopeless at forecasting the economy, but projections of budget receipts and payments depend on those forecasts.

Though neither side is willing to admit it, should the world economy dip back into recession and China's demand for our exports falter, the budget will still be in deficit - as, in those circumstances, it should be.

Whether we return to budget surplus in three years or five matters little to the well-being of Australians. So great are the uncertainties that Gillard's promise of a surplus of $3.5 billion in 2012-13 and Abbott's promise of $6.2 billion are indistinguishable.

The squabbling over the costs of each side's promises is literally unreal. While, unsurprisingly, Treasury and the Department of Finance have a monopoly over the ability to produce costings they agree with, their record in predicting the ultimate cost of new policies is quite poor.

Both sides have made many expensive promises in this campaign, many of them involving waste. Both sides claim to have identified savings sufficient to cover the cost of their promises (and more in Abbott's case).

But if they were as worried about deficits and debt as they claim to be, they would have devoted all of those savings to reducing them.

What has passed for economic debate in this campaign has been dominated by narrow thinking, humbuggery, false precision and pseudo importance. Heaven help us.

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Miners moan, but we need our fair share

It's easy to forget that the future of the minerals resource rent tax - the most significant tax reform since the goods and services tax was introduced a decade ago - hangs on the outcome of this election.

Should Tony Abbott win, he won't proceed with introducing the mining tax in July 2012, meaning he won't proceed with most of the tax concessions the new tax would pay for.

Labor has justified the tax as necessary to give Australians a fairer share of the profits from mining the now hugely more valuable coal and iron ore deposits the community owns. Exploitation of these resources is subject to royalty charges levied by state governments, but these payments have failed to keep up with the resources' higher market value.

Against this, the Liberals have claimed this "great big new tax" would do great damage to the mining industry and hence the economy. The big three mining companies - BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata - initially agreed with this claim, but dropped their objections after the incoming Julia Gillard did a deal with them that significantly watered down the original "resource super profits tax".

However, the smaller coal and iron ore mining companies - which weren't part of the deal - now believe (correctly) they were dudded by the big boys and have continued their opposition, claiming the tax means "families will be hurt with job losses in every community across Australia".

It's not hard to see why miners would object to paying more tax, but the tax was recommended by the Henry tax review and it is hard to see why these eminent economists would advocate a tax that could damage the economy.

The very reason for levying a tax on the "economic rent" derived from mining (that is, on the "super-normal profit" earned in excess of the "normal profit" needed to keep the mining companies' resources employed in the mining business) is to ensure the tax does not discourage mining activity.

Indeed, the review argued that, as well as raising revenue that could be used to reduce other, less efficient taxes, the resource rent tax would tax the resources sector more efficiently. That is, over time it would lead to a bigger mining industry, not a smaller one.

As originally proposed, the tax had three main advantages in terms of encouraging the efficient allocation of resources. First, using an increase in the tax on immobile resources (such as minerals) to finance a reduction in the tax on internationally mobile resources (such as financial capital, via company tax) would improve Australia's ability to compete against other countries in attracting foreign investment.

Second, using the tax to effectively replace state royalties would do much less to discourage mining activity. Royalty payments are inefficient because they're levied either on the volume of minerals mined or on their market price. This means royalties take no account of the cost of mining the minerals, which varies with the quality of the mineral being mined and how hard it is to get at.

The effect is to discourage the mining of low-grade deposits and discourage miners from continuing to mine the more costly, deeper-down minerals once the less costly stuff near the top has been won.

Third, the royalty system does nothing to recognise the high risks involved in setting up a mine. You can spend a lot of money, then discover it isn't profitable after all. The royalty system ignores all your costs, but starts charging you from the first tonne you manage to produce.

The great (but much misunderstood) beauty of the original resource super profits tax was it went as close as it practically could to the symmetrical treatment of profits and losses. You'd pay 40 per cent tax on your net profits, but if you incurred a net loss the government would cover 40 per cent of it. If you couldn't immediately deduct the 40 per cent from other mining tax payable, you could carry it forward, with its real value preserved by indexation to the long-term bond rate. If you abandoned the mine as unprofitable, the taxman would refund 40 per cent of your indexed accumulated loss.

Many critics of the tax got terribly muddled over this unfamiliar arrangement, accusing the government of using the (risk-free) long-term bond rate to measure the economic rent, when everyone knew you should use the risk-adjusted rate of return.

They failed to see it was the government guarantee of 40 per cent of losses that took account of risk. This recognition of risk meant fewer firms would be discouraged from undertaking risky investments by the tax system's failure to make adequate allowance for those risks.

So, as originally designed, the mining tax was highly efficient in its effect on the allocation of resources. Trouble was, it would have raised more than double the revenue Treasury originally estimated. That was the real thing bugging the big three companies.

Gillard should have responded merely by halving the rate of the tax from 40 per cent to 20 per cent. Instead, she cut it to an effective 22.5 per cent and butchered its design for good measure. In the process, she greatly reduced - but didn't eliminate - its efficiency benefits.

Originally, the tax involved a complete, up-front rebate of state royalties; now all you'd get is a deduction against any mining tax you owe. Originally, the tax applied to all minerals; now it applies only to coal and iron ore, with an exemption for those firms owing less than $50 million in mining tax. Originally, 40 per cent of losses were guaranteed by the government; now 7 percentage points have been added to the bond-rate "uplift factor" (which arbitrarily leaves some projects better off and some worse off).

It was always the case that virtually all the new tax was to have been paid by the big three companies; in some years, more than all. In other words, excluding the other minerals and the coal and iron-ore tiddlers may actually have saved the government revenue. If so, those other firms are worse off under the changes. They'd remain subject to all the drawbacks of the state royalty system. And fewer mining projects are likely to be started because their potential promoters will find the prospect of early losses more daunting.

Even so, a butchered mining tax would be better than no mining tax.

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Claims of stimulus waste were greatly exaggerated

Media reporting and opposition politicking have left many people with the impression much, if not most, and maybe even all of the billions spent on school buildings under the Rudd government's stimulus package has been wasted.

It's an impression based on the piling up of unproved anecdotes about waste or rorting of particular school building projects. Which means it's an impression that's not genuinely "evidence-based".

Enough anecdotes have been produced to demonstrate that some degree of waste has occurred. But that's hardly surprising: there's a degree of waste involved in most spending, public or private.

The real question is how significant that waste has been. And no amount of piling up of unproved allegations can satisfactorily answer that question. Only a thorough investigation of the complaints can determine the extent of the waste and the reasons for it.

It's important to understand - as most people don't - that news reporting practices aren't intended to give us a representative picture of what's happening. Indeed, what's "newsworthy" is often quite unrepresentative.

News focuses on the unusual not the usual, the bad news not the good, the contentious not the widely accepted. (That's why climate change-denying scientists get a degree of media publicity out of proportion to the relevance of their qualifications or how representative they are of scientific opinion.)

This is why you wouldn't expect the media to do justice to the reassuring conclusions of the independent taskforce established to investigate complaints about the Building the Education Revolution spending.

For one thing, reassurance isn't very newsworthy. For another, any critical comments will be given more prominence than generally approving comments.

But there's more to the school building issue than just the limitations of news reporting. The complaints have been seized upon and played up by elements of the media and others with either partisan or ideological motives for seeking to discredit the use of budgetary stimulus in response to the downturn in our economy prompted by the global financial crisis and the world recession.

These people want us to conclude there was never any threat to the economy, thus making the stimulus spending unnecessary and, as it turned out, quite wasteful. Those with an ideological opposition to fiscal stimulus want us to conclude it NEVER works.

That's why I've read for myself the interim report of the taskforce, chaired by Brad Orgill, and want to give you a balanced account of its findings.

The taskforce was established to receive and investigate complaints about the school building program and to determine whether schools are achieving value for money. So far it has received complaints affecting 254 schools, representing only 2.7 per cent of all schools involved in the program.

Almost all the complaints relate to the part of the program that promised to build and upgrade infrastructure in all the nation's primary schools. The $14 billion cost of this element accounts for almost 90 per cent of the total cost of the program.

It will have delivered more than 10,500 construction projects to more than 7900 primary schools by late next year. About a third of the money is going on multi-purpose halls, almost 30 per cent on classrooms and a quarter on libraries, with the remainder going on covered outdoor learning areas and other things.

Spending of the money is being administered by 22 state government, Catholic and independent school authorities. Although the NSW government accounts for 22 per cent of the projects, it attracted 56 per cent of the complaints. The Victorian government, with a 12 per cent share of projects, attracted 20 per cent of the complaints.

More than half the complaints relate to value for money. "From our investigations to date, the majority of complaints raise very valid concerns, particularly about value for money and the approach to school-level involvement in decision making," the report says.

The report acknowledges - as many of the critics don't - that the primary reason for spending the money was to help counter the downturn in the economy by providing employment for building and construction workers throughout the country. It was also hoped the new buildings would improve the quality of our kids' education.

The report finds the stimulus "prevented many construction organisations from reducing staff or the size of their operations to match an otherwise decreasing workload resulting from the global financial crisis".

But the stimulus motive meant it was important to get the money spent quickly and this involved a trade-off. It meant less time for consultation with individual schools and less choice and customising of projects. That meant a degree of waste and, certainly, dissatisfaction on the part of some schools.

Cost per square metre was very much higher in NSW government projects, mainly because of big project management fees, which were 5 percentage points higher than normal. But these fees are partly explained by the high priority the NSW government gave to getting its projects completed quickly. Those states in less of a hurry incurred lower costs per metre.

The report says that, overall, delivering the projects within the short time-frame to achieve the economic-stimulus objective may have added a premium to normal costs of 5 to 6 per cent.

"Notwithstanding the validity of issues raised in the complaints, our overall observation is that this Australia-wide program is delivering much-needed infrastructure to school communities while achieving the primary goal of economic activity across the nation," the report concludes.

So the impression of widespread waste the media and people with axes to grind have left us with is greatly exaggerated.

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Don't be fooled by debt spin

In an ideal world, the economic debate between the two sides in election campaigns would leave voters with an accurate picture of the issues and choices. If one side said something wrong or misleading, this would be quickly refuted by the other.

Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that. Both sides are seeking votes, not enlightenment. When one side makes a misleading but seemingly persuasive point against the other, the reaction may be to change the subject rather than correct the error.

Rather than push them further apart, competitive pressure tends to push both sides towards the centre ground. So it may suit both to perpetuate the same misconceptions.

One simple truth that gets lost in election campaigns is that the primary responsibility for the day-to-day management of the economy rests not with the politicians, but with the bureaucrats in the central bank. It's they who determine the level of short-term interest rates, and it's the manipulation of interest rates ("monetary policy") that has most effect on the strength of demand (spending) in the economy.

The instrument of macro-economic management the elected government controls, the budget ("fiscal policy"), is secondary to monetary policy (although it does play a more prominent role during recessions). This leaves the denizens of Canberra (including journalists) with an inclination to exaggerate the role of fiscal policy in the management of the economy.

One way the Liberals do this (so far it hasn't suited Labor to run this line) is to exaggerate the effect of the budget on the level of interest rates. One rarely fully articulated argument is that budget deficits - which have to be covered by government borrowing - leave fewer funds available to be borrowed by the private sector and thus force up interest rates.

This would be true if our capital markets were cut off from the rest of the world but, since they're not, it isn't. Effectively, both our public and private sectors borrow in the global market, where their demand is too small to have any effect on world interest rates.

A better argument is that changes in the budget balance affect the strength of "aggregate" (total) demand in the economy and so affect the Reserve Bank's decisions about whether rising inflation pressure requires it to raise interest rates to discourage borrowing and spending. A fall in the budget deficit or a rise in the budget surplus could in this sense reduce upward pressure on rates.

But though this is true in principle, remember - as the denizens of Canberra keep forgetting - the federal government's budget balance is only one of the factors influencing the strength of aggregate demand. Other factors include the volume of exports versus imports, the terms of trade (the prices of exports and imports), the exchange rate and the strength of business and consumer confidence.

So, in practice, the effect of changes in the budget balance on the Reserve Bank's decisions about interest rates is usually pretty limited, as repeated comments by its governor make clear. But the whole Canberra obsession with (budget) deficits and debt, particularly in this campaign, can leave the unwary with an exaggerated impression of the federal budget's place in the scheme of things. You see this when journalists ask politicians when they plan to get "the economy" (or even "the country") out of deficit or out of debt. Sorry, the economy isn't in deficit, now or ever. It's just the budget that's in deficit, and there's a world of difference between the two.

Federal government spending is equivalent to only about a quarter of the economy as measured by gross domestic product, and even this exaggerates the budget's importance because much government spending merely involves transferring money between taxpayers and welfare recipients rather than producing goods and services (which is what GDP measures). No, it's important to understand that, apart from being a device for managing its own incomings and outgoings, the federal government's budget is an instrument that has effects on the economy without being the economy.

That's important because it helps you see the budget is merely a means to an end, not an end in itself. It's there to serve the economy; the economy isn't there to serve the budget. It's the economy that matters because the economy is us - it's the sum of the economic dimension of our lives, all the consuming and producing you and I do.

There's been such extraordinary fuss about the budget and its balance in this campaign that the uninitiated could be forgiven for concluding economic management is all about balancing the budget and avoiding debt.

Rubbish. Economic management is about keeping unemployment and inflation low (fortunately, this is the bit the Reserve Bank takes primary responsibility for). In conventional terms, it's about pursuing economic growth so as to continually raise our material standard of living.

To the more enlightened, it's about ensuring economic activity doesn't lead to the malfunctioning of the ecosystem, the most pressing instance of which is global warming. Both sides are running from their responsibility to combat climate change; their obsession with deficits and debt is a diversionary tactic. It will be a long time before they face up to the deeper question of whether endless economic growth is compatible with preserving an ecosystem that doesn't grow.

Economic management is about reforming those government interventions that reduce the efficiency of resource use without sufficient social justification. It's also about correcting market failures - instances where, left to its own devices, the market fails to maximise our wellbeing. That is, the federal government is responsible for micro-economic reform.

Government - state as well as federal - is responsible for ensuring the provision of certain vital services and infrastructure. We need, but don't have, sufficient investment in education and training - ranging from early childhood to schools to technical education to universities - to ensure a bright future for Australians and leave us with something to show for our mineral wealth.

To overcome present deficiencies and assure our future we need a lot more investment in economic and social infrastructure, particularly in transport and telecommunications.

If it's to happen, much of this investment will have to be financed by government. The notion that the Howard government left us with a debilitating infrastructure backlog used to be an incessant cry of the Labor government.

But the continuing obeisance to Costelloism - the doctrine that all public debt is bad - in this campaign suggests neither side would do much to deliver the infrastructure we need.

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Labor's no worse, and no better, than the Libs

To the superstitious, the meaning is clear: Julia Gillard and her Labor mates must be OK on economic management, otherwise God wouldn't have let her off the hook by causing the quarterly inflation reading to be low and thus averting a mid-campaign rise in interest rates.

Or perhaps all it proves is that God is a woman.

But there's a better reason for believing Gillard is a genuine fiscal conservative: the revelation that, as a member of Kevin Rudd's Gang of Four, she queried the cost of the decisions to introduce paid parental leave and significantly increase the age pension (while ensuring the benefit to sole parents was limited and the benefit to people on the dole non-existent).

As Tony Abbott has proceeded to demonstrate, Labor's paid parental leave scheme wasn't particularly expensive. Particularly not when you take account of how readily it can be justified in terms of both horizontal equity (reducing the biases facing women in the workforce) and economic efficiency (reducing the wastage of female skilled labour).

But the pension increase was hugely expensive, with costs that will keep growing until the end of time. And it was far more generous than the inquiry into pension adequacy recommended. It said there was no justification for increasing the married rate, but Rudd slung them $10 a week anyway.

Even with the single pension, the inquiry said it was mainly people who were renting who were struggling (the great majority of age pensioners own their homes outright), but Rudd ignored this targeted approach and granted all singles a $30 a week increase.

It was a profligate decision, one John Howard would never have countenanced. I've no doubt it was motivated by politics rather than fairness, being Rudd's attempt to buy the grey vote - a futile gesture. If Gillard queried the politics of it, she showed better judgment than her leader.

It's true the ever-growing cost of the pension increase was covered by ever-growing savings measures: phasing up the pension age to 67, tighter means testing of the pension and family tax benefits, reductions in superannuation tax rorts and means testing the private health insurance rebate (a measure the Liberals have blocked in the Senate).

But the opportunity cost of using those (eminently justified) savings to cover the cost of a needlessly generous pension increase is that they're no longer available to help return the budget to structural balance.

So if Gillard was querying the cost of the pension increase, good on her. Just a pity she didn't push harder.

But there's a deeper conclusion to be drawn. It soon became clear Rudd, the self-proclaimed fiscal conservative, was addicted to spending. Even so, he made sure his stimulus measures were T-for-temporary, enunciated a plausible "deficit exit strategy" and stuck to and strengthened it in his last budget.

I concluded the two purse-string ministers in the Gang of Four - Wayne Swan and Lindsay Tanner - were working hard to keep Rudd's spending proclivity in check and make his professed fiscal conservatism a reality.

Now, however, it's clear they were getting strong support from the third member of the quartet, Gillard. That's a good sign.

But though budgetary responsibility - sticking to the medium-term fiscal strategy of achieving budget surpluses, on average, over the economic cycle - is important, it's not the be-all-and-end-all of economic management that Abbott and Joe Hockey portray it as.

It's an inadequate substitute for courageous micro-economic reform, starting with immediate implementation of an emissions trading scheme. No party that squibs on acting early to protect the economy from the hugely adverse consequences of climate change can claim to be a good economic manager.

It's noteworthy that once the Liberals had abandoned their commitment to using a price-based approach to combating climate change, it didn't take Labor long to abandon its own commitment.

Similarly, once the Libs set their face against the highly equitable and economically efficient resource super profits tax, it wasn't long before Labor went into retreat.

It could merely have slashed the rate of the tax when it discovered how much more it would raise than had ever been contemplated, but for good measure it butchered the design of the tax, greatly reducing its economic efficiency benefits as a substitute for the inflexible state royalties.

And it's the Liberals' Costello-instigated obsession with budget deficits and public debt (though certainly not current account deficits and foreign debt) that does most to explain why Labor has donned the same hair shirt. Labor began by arguing we needed to overcome the Howard government's neglect of economic infrastructure, but soon succumbed to Costelloism.

See what this means? This government is so lacking in self-confidence on matters economic it takes its lead from its political opponents - even when they're led by that unabashed economic irrationalist, Abbott.

Elect Gillard and what you'll get is Abbott populism at one remove. What you won't get is a government with the confidence to decide for itself what the economy needs and what is politically achievable, if there is a willingness to put up a fight and lose a bit of skin.

Why is the Rudd-Gillard government so reactive when it comes to economic management? Because, when the public is asked which party is better at managing the economy, its answer almost always favours the Liberals. By 47 per cent to 35 per cent, according to a recent Newspoll.

The public is convinced the party of the workers wouldn't be much good at running the economy. And in its heart, Labor fears the public is right.

If by some chance Labor fails to get itself re-elected, there'll be one overwhelming explanation for such an extraordinary result: the punters aren't impressed by timidity and lack of conviction. Bring back Paul Keating.

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Don't take the bait on debt

I've had to cut short my leave because of the election campaign, but those who follow the political debate faithfully might be better off taking an overseas holiday for the next three weeks. It's clear they'd miss little but aggravation.

The paradoxical truth is that modern election campaigns are aimed at those who aren't much interested in the topic. Swinging voters are assumed to be completely self-interested and short-sighted, driven by emotion rather than intellect, ill-informed and easily conned by slogans and television ads.

Hence all the nonsense we're hearing from both sides. For those of us who do take an intelligent interest, the best response is to conduct our own debate, ignoring the silliness as much as we can.

This election is the battle of the scare campaigns. Pollies are trying to frighten us about big new taxes, the return of Work Choices, the threat from boat people, and deficits and debt. I've written a lot in recent times about why we don't need to be too worried by budget deficits and public debt. But observing all the trouble the major developed countries are having has caused me to see the matter in a different light.

Many of the European economies and, to a lesser extent the United States, are worried about the huge levels of public debt they have racked up and the risk that the financial markets will begin to doubt their ability to repay those debts.

As a result, the British, German and other governments have embarked on austerity campaigns, cutting government spending and increasing taxes at a time when their economies are very weak. To slash budget deficits at such a time is likely to make their economies even weaker, meaning the actual progress they make in reducing their deficits is likely to be small, notwithstanding the pain the austerity measures are inflicting.

How did they get themselves into such a predicament? Well, the global financial crisis left them with no alternative but to borrow heavily to rescue their mismanaged banks, and then borrow again to try to reflate their economies. Had they failed to prop up their banks - as happened in the Great Depression of the 1930s - things would have been much worse. Fortunately, the worst was averted. But it would be wrong to conclude all the borrowing of recent times is what has got the main economies into trouble.

No, the real problem is they went into the crisis with such high budget deficits and levels of public debt. Throughout the long boom that preceded the crisis, most governments were running annual deficits rather than surpluses, thereby adding to accumulated debt rather than paying it off. They had failed to get their houses in order during the good times and so were badly placed when the bad times struck.

Why were they caught out? Because their politicians had been indulging voters who want ever-increasing government services but are most resistant to higher taxes. Rather than forcing their voters to face financial reality, they just went on year after year putting the shortfall on tick.

When you consider the genuine worries of the big countries, you realise how silly it is for us to worry about our tiny budgetary problem. They have levels of public debt up about 80 or 90 per cent of their annual national incomes (gross domestic product). Our present budget deficits and consequent borrowing are expected to leave us with a net public debt that peaks at $94 billion in 2013.

Does that sound a lot? If it does it's because you don't realise how big our government and the Australian economy really are. It will represent just 6 per cent of our annual national income.

Let me ask you a personal question: how big is your mortgage relative to your annual income? If it amounted to just 6 per cent of your annual income, how worried would you be? It's common for people to take out home loans that are three or four times their annual income.

Unlike the rest of the developed economies, we went into the global financial crisis with no net debt. Peter Costello and the Howard government get the credit for this.

They introduced and stuck to a "medium-term fiscal strategy" of keeping the budget in balance on average over the economic cycle. That is, it's OK for the budget to go into deficit during recessions, provided it goes back into surplus during the recovery, thereby eventually paying off the debt incurred during the period when the economy was weak and the budget was propping it up. The Rudd/Gillard government is following this same strategy. Indeed, so successful has the opposition been in putting the frighteners on the public over deficits and debt that Labor is on its best behaviour, promising to find spending cuts to offset all new spending promises. The usual vote-buying auction has turned into a Dutch auction. Amazing.

As I've argued all along, the Liberals' relatively recent obsession with deficits and debt (it was the creation of Costello, never being part of John Howard's rhetoric when he was treasurer or in opposition) is way overdone. But when you look at the problem the Europeans' and Americans' budgetary laxity has got them into, you realise our antipodean obsession with avoiding public debt has its advantages.

We've been more frugal than we've needed to be, but it has certainly kept us out of trouble.

In economics, however, there are no free lunches. Everything comes at an (opportunity) cost. So successful has Costello been at demonising all government debt - state and federal - that we've failed to invest in enough economic and social infrastructure. Our debt level is minor, but we're living in the worst house in the street.

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